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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Considering that the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical threshold for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we taking a look at a new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues exceeded expectations: Numerous financiers were worried that as stocks plunged, this decline would also be shown in their incomes report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place prematurely, prior to the required financial goals have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur often, and this has actually undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which normally happen before the one that is sustainable arrives and begins the next booming market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to compromise. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still may not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate hikes.
In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls around 10 different ETFs, providing direct exposure to various sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom however at the same time careful about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still requires to come down.