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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Given that the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the hypothetical threshold for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bear market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To address this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings went beyond expectations: Lots of investors were worried that as stocks plummeted, this downturn would likewise be shown in their revenues report. Nevertheless, the reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring prematurely, prior to the required financial goals have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen frequently, and this has certainly been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually happen before the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearishness rally. History indicates that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unmatched.
Inflation needs to come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we need to see a continual decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product rates falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to compromise. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest hikes.
In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls roughly 10 different ETFs, providing direct exposure to numerous sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is greatly weighted towards health care and infotech properties. The ETF offers direct exposure to a series of sectors, allowing you to increase the variety of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay optimistic that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time mindful about the present rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next booming market. For that to happen, inflation still needs to come down.