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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Because the start of the second half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical threshold for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a brand-new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues went beyond expectations: Numerous financiers were stressed that as stocks plunged, this slump would also be shown in their incomes report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening too soon, prior to the needed financial objectives have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen typically, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually happen prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next booming market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearishness rally. History indicates that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unmatched.
Inflation needs to come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next booming market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to damage. Regardless of these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to halt interest rate walkings.
In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages around ten different ETFs, providing direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we may have seen the bearishness reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next bull market. For that to happen, inflation still needs to come down.