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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical limit for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we taking a look at a new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings surpassed expectations: Many financiers were stressed that as stocks dropped, this decline would also be reflected in their profits report. However, the reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is taking place prematurely, prior to the essential financial objectives have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually happen before the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some healings require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History shows that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unmatched.
Inflation needs to boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next booming market, we require to see a sustained decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity rates falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to deteriorate. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate walkings.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time mindful about the existing rally being the sustainable healing that will cause the next booming market. For that to happen, inflation still requires to come down.