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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Considering that the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical limit for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bear market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues went beyond expectations: Numerous investors were fretted that as stocks dropped, this downturn would also be reflected in their revenues report. Nevertheless, the reports were not almost as bad as lots of feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place prematurely, before the necessary financial objectives have actually been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place frequently, and this has actually undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally happen before the one that is sustainable shows up and begins the next bull market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History indicates that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not unmatched.
Inflation needs to boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity rates falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest walkings.
The main ETF to point out here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive investments handled by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages roughly ten different ETFs, offering exposure to different sectors of the market, with the main concentrate on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) is heavily weighted towards health care and infotech assets. The ETF uses direct exposure to a range of sectors, permitting you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.