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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But considering that the beginning of the second half of the year, the marketplace has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the hypothetical threshold for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we taking a look at a brand-new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The implication is that the marketplace has actually reached its bottom as the cost has actually been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits surpassed expectations: Numerous investors were stressed that as stocks dropped, this decline would also be reflected in their profits report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring too soon, before the needed economic goals have actually been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur frequently, and this has actually indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually happen before the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next booming market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some healings require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bear market rally. History suggests that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unmatched.
Inflation needs to boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we need to see a continual decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to weaken. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest walkings.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay optimistic that we may have seen the bearishness reach its bottom however at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.