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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But considering that the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical threshold for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we looking at a brand-new bull market or is this a bearishness rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the price has actually been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Thus, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 incomes surpassed expectations: Many financiers were worried that as stocks plummeted, this downturn would likewise be shown in their incomes report. However, the reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening too soon, before the needed economic goals have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which typically happen before the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bear market rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not unmatched.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to stop rates of interest hikes.
In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls roughly 10 different ETFs, providing direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we might have seen the bearishness reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next booming market. For that to happen, inflation still requires to come down.