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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But since the start of the second half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical limit for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a brand-new bull market or is this a bear market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits exceeded expectations: Lots of investors were worried that as stocks plummeted, this slump would likewise be shown in their revenues report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as lots of feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is taking place too soon, before the needed economic goals have actually been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur often, and this has actually undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually occur prior to the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History suggests that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unmatched.
Inflation needs to boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a continual decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to damage. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest walkings.
In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately 10 different ETFs, supplying direct exposure to various sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom however at the same time mindful about the present rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.