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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But considering that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical threshold for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we taking a look at a new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits went beyond expectations: Lots of financiers were worried that as stocks dropped, this downturn would also be reflected in their incomes report. The reports were not nearly as bad as lots of feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring too soon, before the essential financial objectives have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen frequently, and this has actually indeed been a big one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which normally happen prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and begins the next booming market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bear market rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation should boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to damage. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to stop rates of interest walkings.
In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls roughly 10 different ETFs, offering exposure to numerous sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom however at the same time mindful about the existing rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next booming market. For that to happen, inflation still needs to come down.