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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical threshold for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a brand-new bull market or is this a bearishness rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has actually reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 incomes exceeded expectations: Many investors were fretted that as stocks dropped, this decline would also be reflected in their incomes report. The reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening prematurely, before the required economic goals have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place frequently, and this has undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually happen before the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearishness rally. History shows that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product rates falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to compromise. In spite of these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still may not convince the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate hikes.
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We stay positive that we may have seen the bearishness reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the existing rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.