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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But given that the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical threshold for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we looking at a brand-new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To address this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The ramification is that the marketplace has actually reached its bottom as the cost has actually been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits exceeded expectations: Lots of investors were fretted that as stocks plummeted, this recession would also be reflected in their profits report. The reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring too soon, prior to the required economic goals have actually been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen typically, and this has actually undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally occur before the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearishness rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not extraordinary.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a continual decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to compromise. Despite these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to halt rates of interest hikes.
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We stay positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.