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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But considering that the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical threshold for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The ramification is that the marketplace has actually reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings surpassed expectations: Numerous investors were stressed that as stocks plummeted, this recession would also be shown in their revenues report. The reports were not nearly as bad as lots of feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is happening prematurely, before the essential financial objectives have actually been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur typically, and this has undoubtedly been a huge one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which typically happen before the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next bull market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History shows that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unmatched.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product rates falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to deteriorate. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still may not persuade the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest hikes.
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We remain positive that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the present rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still requires to come down.