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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But since the start of the second half of the year, the marketplace has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical limit for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we taking a look at a new booming market or is this a bear market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings exceeded expectations: Many investors were stressed that as stocks plunged, this downturn would also be shown in their incomes report. Nevertheless, the reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring too soon, before the required economic objectives have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen typically, and this has undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand apart:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which generally take place prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and begins the next booming market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History shows that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unmatched.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest hikes.
The primary ETF to mention here is ARKK. It sprung into the spotlight in 2020, with its disruptive financial investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately 10 different ETFs, providing direct exposure to different sectors of the marketplace, with the main concentrate on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is heavily weighted towards health care and infotech properties. The ETF uses direct exposure to a range of sectors, allowing you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the complete impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we may have seen the bearishness reach its bottom however at the same time mindful about the current rally being the sustainable healing that will result in the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.