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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Given that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical limit for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we taking a look at a brand-new booming market or is this a bear market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The ramification is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings went beyond expectations: Lots of investors were worried that as stocks dropped, this downturn would also be reflected in their profits report. Nevertheless, the reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Financiers are hoping for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place too soon, before the required economic goals have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur often, and this has certainly been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which typically happen prior to the one that is sustainable arrives and begins the next booming market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearishness rally. History shows that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unmatched.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we require to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to damage. Regardless of these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still may not convince the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate walkings.
In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages around ten different ETFs, offering direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) is heavily weighted towards health care and infotech possessions. The ETF uses direct exposure to a range of sectors, allowing you to increase the variety of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time mindful about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still requires to come down.