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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But since the start of the second half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical limit for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bear market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To address this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the rate has actually been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Thus, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits surpassed expectations: Lots of investors were fretted that as stocks plunged, this downturn would also be shown in their incomes report. The reports were not nearly as bad as lots of feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring too soon, before the needed economic objectives have actually been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place frequently, and this has actually undoubtedly been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which usually take place prior to the one that is sustainable arrives and begins the next booming market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some healings require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity rates falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still may not convince the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest hikes.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time mindful about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next booming market. For that to take place, inflation still requires to come down.