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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical limit for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we taking a look at a brand-new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings surpassed expectations: Numerous investors were fretted that as stocks plunged, this downturn would also be shown in their revenues report. Nevertheless, the reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Financiers are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place prematurely, before the essential economic goals have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place frequently, and this has actually indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which normally happen prior to the one that is sustainable shows up and begins the next booming market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next booming market, we require to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to compromise. Regardless of these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate walkings.
In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately ten different ETFs, offering direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.