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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical limit for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a brand-new bull market or is this a bear market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the rate has actually been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Thus, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues exceeded expectations: Lots of investors were worried that as stocks plunged, this recession would also be reflected in their revenues report. The reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring prematurely, prior to the needed financial goals have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place often, and this has actually indeed been a big one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which normally occur prior to the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History suggests that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product rates falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to damage. Despite these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest walkings.
The main ETF to point out here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages roughly ten different ETFs, providing direct exposure to various sectors of the marketplace, with the primary concentrate on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is heavily weighted towards health care and infotech assets. The ETF provides exposure to a variety of sectors, enabling you to increase the variety of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we may have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next bull market. For that to happen, inflation still requires to come down.