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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But because the start of the second half of the year, the marketplace has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical limit for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we looking at a new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings surpassed expectations: Numerous investors were worried that as stocks plunged, this slump would likewise be reflected in their revenues report. The reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring prematurely, prior to the necessary financial goals have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has actually indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually occur prior to the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next bull market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History shows that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unmatched.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to compromise. Despite these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to stop rates of interest hikes.
In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls roughly ten different ETFs, offering direct exposure to numerous sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.