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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Because the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical limit for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Thus, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues went beyond expectations: Numerous investors were worried that as stocks plunged, this recession would likewise be reflected in their incomes report. However, the reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is taking place prematurely, prior to the necessary economic objectives have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen typically, and this has actually indeed been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which normally occur prior to the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next bull market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History suggests that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation should boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we require to see a continual decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product rates falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to compromise. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still may not convince the Fed that it is time to halt rates of interest hikes.
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We stay positive that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.