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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. However given that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical threshold for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a brand-new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The ramification is that the marketplace has actually reached its bottom as the cost has actually been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings exceeded expectations: Lots of financiers were worried that as stocks plunged, this decline would also be reflected in their earnings report. Nevertheless, the reports were not nearly as bad as lots of feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place too soon, prior to the required economic objectives have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen typically, and this has indeed been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which normally happen prior to the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History shows that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not extraordinary.
Inflation needs to boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next booming market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to weaken. Despite these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still may not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate hikes.
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We remain optimistic that we may have seen the bearishness reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the present rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still requires to come down.