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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Given that the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical limit for a new bull market.

When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we taking a look at a brand-new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?

To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.

Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the rate has actually been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings surpassed expectations: Many financiers were worried that as stocks dropped, this recession would also be reflected in their incomes report. Nevertheless, the reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring prematurely, before the required financial goals have been attained.

Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen typically, and this has actually certainly been a huge one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand apart:.

 

The large number of bear rallies which generally occur prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and begins the next booming market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History suggests that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation should come down.

To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still may not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest hikes.

The main ETF to mention here is ARKK. It sprung into the spotlight in 2020, with its disruptive investments handled by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately 10 various ETFs, providing direct exposure to various sectors of the marketplace, with the main concentrate on tech.

” ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) is greatly weighted towards health care and infotech assets. The ETF provides direct exposure to a range of sectors, allowing you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.

” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.

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We remain optimistic that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom however at the same time careful about the existing rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next bull market. For that to happen, inflation still needs to come down.