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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But since the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical threshold for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The ramification is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits exceeded expectations: Many investors were fretted that as stocks plummeted, this recession would also be reflected in their revenues report. Nevertheless, the reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring prematurely, prior to the essential economic goals have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur often, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which normally take place prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and begins the next bull market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History shows that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation needs to boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we require to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to deteriorate. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rates of interest hikes.
In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls around 10 different ETFs, offering direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we may have seen the bearishness reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the current rally being the sustainable healing that will result in the next booming market. For that to take place, inflation still requires to come down.