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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Considering that the start of the second half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical threshold for a new bull market.

When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bear market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?

To address this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.

Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 incomes surpassed expectations: Numerous financiers were stressed that as stocks plunged, this decline would likewise be shown in their incomes report. The reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring too soon, before the essential economic goals have been accomplished.

Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen often, and this has undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.

 

The large number of bear rallies which usually take place prior to the one that is sustainable shows up and begins the next bull market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearishness rally. History indicates that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation should boil down.

To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we require to see a continual decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to compromise. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest hikes.

In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages around 10 various ETFs, providing exposure to various sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.

” ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) is heavily weighted towards healthcare and infotech possessions. The ETF offers direct exposure to a series of sectors, enabling you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.

” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.

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We remain optimistic that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time mindful about the present rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next booming market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.