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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the hypothetical threshold for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we taking a look at a brand-new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 incomes exceeded expectations: Numerous investors were worried that as stocks plunged, this downturn would likewise be reflected in their earnings report. However, the reports were not nearly as bad as lots of feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is happening too soon, prior to the essential financial goals have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur frequently, and this has actually indeed been a big one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which typically occur before the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some healings require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History suggests that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unmatched.
Inflation needs to boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to weaken. Regardless of these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still may not convince the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate hikes.
In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately ten different ETFs, providing direct exposure to numerous sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay optimistic that we may have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.