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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Given that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical threshold for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a brand-new booming market or is this a bear market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits went beyond expectations: Lots of financiers were worried that as stocks plunged, this recession would likewise be reflected in their profits report. The reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening too soon, prior to the required financial goals have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has actually certainly been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually occur before the one that is sustainable arrives and begins the next bull market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unmatched.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we require to see a continual decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to damage. Despite these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest walkings.
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We stay positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the existing rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next booming market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.