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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the start of the second half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the hypothetical threshold for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a new booming market or is this a bear market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the cost has actually been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Thus, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits exceeded expectations: Lots of financiers were fretted that as stocks plummeted, this decline would also be reflected in their profits report. Nevertheless, the reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring too soon, before the essential financial objectives have actually been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen frequently, and this has undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which normally take place before the one that is sustainable shows up and begins the next bull market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History shows that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation needs to come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity rates falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to damage. Regardless of these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate hikes.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the existing rally being the sustainable healing that will cause the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still requires to come down.