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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical limit for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we taking a look at a brand-new bull market or is this a bear market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the rate has actually been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits surpassed expectations: Numerous financiers were stressed that as stocks plummeted, this recession would also be shown in their incomes report. Nevertheless, the reports were not nearly as bad as lots of feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening prematurely, prior to the necessary economic goals have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur typically, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually take place prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History shows that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation needs to come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next booming market, we require to see a continual decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product rates falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to compromise. Despite these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to stop rates of interest hikes.
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We remain optimistic that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom however at the same time careful about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next bull market. For that to happen, inflation still requires to come down.