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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But given that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical threshold for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a new booming market or is this a bear market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the rate has actually been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues went beyond expectations: Numerous financiers were stressed that as stocks plunged, this recession would also be shown in their revenues report. Nevertheless, the reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring too soon, prior to the necessary economic goals have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur typically, and this has actually undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally occur before the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bear market rally. History indicates that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to weaken. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still may not convince the Fed that it is time to halt interest rate hikes.
In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls approximately ten different ETFs, offering exposure to numerous sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we may have seen the bearish market reach its bottom however at the same time cautious about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next booming market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.