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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Because the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical threshold for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we taking a look at a brand-new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 incomes surpassed expectations: Lots of financiers were stressed that as stocks dropped, this decline would also be reflected in their profits report. The reports were not almost as bad as lots of feared.
Financiers are hoping for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is happening too soon, before the necessary economic objectives have actually been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen often, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand apart:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which typically take place before the one that is sustainable gets here and begins the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History indicates that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we need to see a continual decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to compromise. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still may not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest walkings.
The main ETF to mention here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls roughly 10 different ETFs, providing direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) is greatly weighted towards healthcare and infotech assets. The ETF uses direct exposure to a series of sectors, enabling you to increase the variety of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay optimistic that we may have seen the bearish market reach its bottom however at the same time cautious about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next booming market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.