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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But considering that the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical limit for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits went beyond expectations: Many financiers were worried that as stocks plummeted, this downturn would likewise be reflected in their revenues report. However, the reports were not nearly as bad as lots of feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring prematurely, before the needed economic goals have actually been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen typically, and this has indeed been a huge one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally take place prior to the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History shows that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unmatched.
Inflation needs to come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to deteriorate. Regardless of these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to halt rates of interest walkings.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next booming market. For that to happen, inflation still requires to come down.